Crazy Electoral Demographics in Masisi...

Given the proportion of votes that appear to have been stolen in Masisi, which in the grand scheme of things is irrelevant, it’s a shame that the presidential elections in the heart of North Kivu played out so dirty.

If I was in charge of falsifying election results, I would use a little more imagination than the fixers in Masisi did. I don’t claim to be an expert on elections fraud, or even a expert on elections, but, after my crash course at DRC elections, I am thinking about publishing a book entitled ‘How to pull off an Incredibly Incredible Botched election for as little as $1.3 billion.’

I spent a merry afternoon with a friend yesterday ploughing through the 293 pages of elections results, polling station by polling station for Masisi. What we concluded was:

· The Territory showed a polarisation of voting along ethnic lines. With a few exceptions, the Banyarwanda communities voted for Kabila and the Hundes (and others) voted for Kamhere

· In the places where Kabila won, he did so with improbably high percentages.

· Some BDVs showed up some bizarre results, with several offices showing identical results across offices, and other offices giving very round numbers for results.

· Mbusa and Tshisekedi hardly got any votes.

A few examples, numerous locations under the control of the CNDP averaged 96% for Kabila: Shoa, Rubaya, Bahunde, Baishali and Katoyi. In Katoyi some almost perfect Kabila results: 100/103 and miraculously 263/263 votes for Kabila. In the areas with weak FARDC/CNDP influence people came out for Kamhere, Lwibo, Loashi, Niyabiondo showing a credible 87% support for the UNC.

Something odd happened in Sake, a polling station that we observed directly. On the day I counted over 20 BDVs, but in the tally, only two are reported, and, guess what ? Kabila carried Sake.

So a symphony of improbable results in Masisi to a back drop of well documented election rigging and intimidation by pro-Kabila elements in the military.

No results for Mpati, where Erasto directly intervened to prevent a fair vote, and no results from the heartlands of the APCLS in Lukweti.

With numerous eyewitness accounts of the CNDP directly intimidating voters on polling day, and post elections conducting door-to-door ‘surveys’ to work out who did not vote candidate number three, it’s very hard to accept the credibility of any part of the electoral process in Masisi.

Top Elections Rumours from Kin today!

i) this election was foretold in the book of revelation, and tshisi is the antichrist. (Kin. Taxi driver)

ii) if you wear a party t shirt on elections day the candidate will take control of your body and then you'll die the next day

iii) if you look at the first guy on the presidential ballot he'll bewitch you with his gammy eye and you'll have to vote for him

Elections Conspiracies!

I think the reason why I love Congo so much is that it always surprises you and acts in an utterly unpredictable way. I have a sneaking feeling that these elections will be no different. So what i have to share here could be very significant, but as of now is a fairly unbiased conspiracy theory; It goes something like this:

Since we arrived in Kinshasa, we have noticed a big presence of the SADC election monitoring mission; the Grand Hotel if full of them, and indeed in terms of numbers of observers, they are bigger than Carter or the EU. They are supported by the RSA embassy, and i believe that the mission is headed up by a senior member of the ANC. At Njili I also noted a number of medium and small jet planes from the South African Airforce.

Bottom line: the South African's are pouring alot of resources into this elections observations; and here's what I think their plan might be.... As we have all feared the elections will go ahead on time, but as they will not be ready, they will keep the polling booths open for an additional 3,4 or 5 days. The SADC observers will then declare the elections invalid (due to the vastly increased potential or real fraud caused by multiple days of voting). Kabila will be forced to listen to Zuma because of their common business interests (N.B. last week the story about Zuma signing that MOU for the Inga mega power station), and because this is an African monitoring mission (not a white, neo-coloinailist etc exercise). Zuma will insist on some kind of government of national unity, with Kabila removed, or at least demoted, and with one of the opposition leaders, possibly Kengo installed as a transitional president. This will be followed by another Sun City type process in South Africa which will be invested in by the international community, be good business for RSA, and will do a lot to boost Jospeh Zuma's image as a regional man of peace... he needs an image boost in the west, esp. after all the corruption, and HIV and internal political scandal in the ANC.

The other bit of the story that strengthens this conspiracy theory is the way in which RSA has been courting opposition leaders in this process. Its not really normal that mid campaign cycle, both Tshisekedi and Kengo were in South Africa? They were doing the rounds and garnering support and its been clearly acknowledged that the government of RSA has been financing the UDPS. I wouldn't be surprised if Tshisekedi's jet has been paid for by the RSA government.

This is not my theory entirely, although i have to admit i have been watching the regional engagement in these elections with great interest. Its interesting in that this scenario would be a great case of an African solution. The US, the UK, MONUSCO dont have the credibility to adjudicate this, and i don't think that any of them are credible as they have been so blindly optimistic in their support of the CENI and the Government in the electoral process.

The International communities' response to DRC's Election violence

With numerous denunciations of the DRC elections violence this week, the international community was swift to condemn the excessive incidents of the past two weeks. The Belgian foreign minister, the MONUSCO’s SRSG, the UN joint office for Human Rights and the Commissioner of the African Union all made statements condemning the violence. The latter, Jean Ping, was in Kinshasa this week where he impressed on all parties the need to accept the outcome of the November elections:

"There will necessarily be only one winner (of the presidential elections)... The rules of the game must apply. Whoever can't become president this time must accept the results,"

He said. Navin Pillai, the UN special High Commissioner for Human Rights added:

“I am sure the Congolese people share my hope for peaceful, free and fair elections and a smooth exercise of their fundamental right to vote..... The kind of intimidation, threats, incitement, arbitrary arrests and violence that we have documented is unacceptable and has a chilling effect on voters,”

She concluded:

“The Government and leaders of political parties must make it clear that there is to be zero tolerance against any such actions which seriously limit the exercise of the right to vote[1].”

This strong denunciation is very important but it’s a paradox. In the same week of such terrible violence, the international community is reaching out to support the Government. Tomorrow, Joseph Zuma will head to Kinshasa to preside over the signing of a multi billion deal between DRC and South Africa for the rehabilitation and construction of a new hydro-electric plant at Inga on the Congo[2]. Kabila has clearly calculated to stage this high profile ceremony to coincide with his electoral campaign. I wonder whether Zuma and Kabila will have a critical discussion about what will happen if he is not re-elected in December 2011?

---

[1] http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=40341&Cr=Democratic&Cr1=Congo

[2] http://www.mediacongo.net/show.asp?doc=19176

Cheka for Deputy ?

Last week the FARDC tribunal of North Kivu announced that they had amassed enough evidence proving the involvement of the Mayi-Mayi leader Ntabo Ntaberi Cheka in the infamous mass rapes of August 2010 in and around the village of Luvungi, in Walikale. Over 300 women, children and men were raped there over a period of hours. The rapes provoked mass indignation, and precipitated an inquiry and an extraordinary deployment of Congolese Police funded by the United Nations.

Ironically then, at just about the same time, another State institution also pronounced on Cheka: The National Independent Electroal Commission (the CENI). On 17 October they published their definitive lists of candidates for the parliamentary elections of 28^th November. The list included Cheka, who will contest as an independent candidate in Walikale.

Formerly complicit with the FARDC in the control of the largest cassiterite mines in the Province, Mayi-Mayi Cheka continues to menace the civilian population of Walikale with frequent guerrilla attacks against the Congolese armed forces and other Congolese Armed groups.

It would appear to be an almost implausible transition for Cheka to make, from war lord to member of parliament.

regional agenda: elections in NK...

The CNDP have agreed to support Kabila’s Majorite Presidentiel in the forthcoming Presidential and Legislative elections. Motivations for doing so are a matter of large speculation, and the role of regional powers seems to be key. The trade off for CNDP support appears to be causing disquiet internally and the political capacity of the CNDP to conduct normal activities is weak. Large concerns are being voiced vis-à-vis potential illegal activities that the CNDP have already, or may perpetrate during the voting.

The Conference National pour la Defence des Peuple (CNDP) signed a peace accord, which integrated their combatants into the command structure of the FARDC on 23 March 2009. With the arrest by the Rwandan Forces of Laurent Nkunda a few months previously and the installation of Bosco Ntaganda, the CNDP now holds significant command authority within the FARDC, and continues to operate parallel Police and Administration in large sectors of Masisi in the Petit Nord. They have agreed to campaign directly for the re-election of Kabila.

The CNDP remains extremely close to the RPF regime with their political leader, Phillipe Gafishi, a former bureaucrat from Rwanda directly nominated by Kagame via Ntaganda. Given the clear consensus that it is Kagame’s agenda to maintain Kabila as the president of the DRC; it doesn’t take a huge leap of deduction to surmise that the CNDP is installed within North Kivu to do the bidding of Kigali.

In addition to the presence of the CNDP, increasing evidence corroborates the fact that at the invitation of Kabila, up to 1200 Rwandan troops are stationed in various parts of the province. Analysis on their role in the run up to elections is that they could be a possible deterrent to opposition political groups establishing enclaves of opposition to a PPRD led central government.

The CNDP however have voiced discontent around the benefits that the alliance has for them. At present there is one provincial minister from the CNDP, but they hold no National Ministries. The PPRD has so far transferred no funds to the CNDP to carry out campaigning, and they have vociferously denounced this lack of financial support. Admittedly many cadres of the CNDP have been integrated into the FARDC and are on the payroll of the government, but if Kabila is successful in these elections, the CNDP will probably demand at least one national minister position.

In the zones currently under de facto CNDP administration, the control of the population is tight, and irregularities in the registration of illegitimate (underage, foreign) voters have been documented in internal reports of the MONUSCO. As we go into an electoral campaigning period there are fears that the CNDP will:

· Campaign/Intimidate the electorate to vote for Kabila

· Attempt electoral fraud (Ballot Stuffing, voters bussed from polling station to polling station).

· Preventing the electorate from voting

· Targeting non-Banyarwadna ethnic groups with violence.

In areas of weaker CNDP influence, specifically in the Grand Nord, there are fears that the deployment of integrated CNDP officers of the FARDC (such as the transfer of Colonel Eric to Beni) will increase the risk of ethnic violence between the Banyarwanda and the Nande people.

Its probably important to bear in mind that the Tutsi population of North Kivu is less than 5%, their strongest concentration are in Masisi and Jomba (Rutshuru) where they make up a mere 17 % of the population. The capacity of the CNDP to intimidate the populous and their enduring networks with other Congolese Armed groups means that this tiny ethnic minority has a sinister ability to punch above its own weight.