I think the reason why I love Congo so much is that it always surprises you and acts in an utterly unpredictable way. I have a sneaking feeling that these elections will be no different. So what i have to share here could be very significant, but as of now is a fairly unbiased conspiracy theory; It goes something like this:
Since we arrived in Kinshasa, we have noticed a big presence of the SADC election monitoring mission; the Grand Hotel if full of them, and indeed in terms of numbers of observers, they are bigger than Carter or the EU. They are supported by the RSA embassy, and i believe that the mission is headed up by a senior member of the ANC. At Njili I also noted a number of medium and small jet planes from the South African Airforce.
Bottom line: the South African's are pouring alot of resources into this elections observations; and here's what I think their plan might be.... As we have all feared the elections will go ahead on time, but as they will not be ready, they will keep the polling booths open for an additional 3,4 or 5 days. The SADC observers will then declare the elections invalid (due to the vastly increased potential or real fraud caused by multiple days of voting). Kabila will be forced to listen to Zuma because of their common business interests (N.B. last week the story about Zuma signing that MOU for the Inga mega power station), and because this is an African monitoring mission (not a white, neo-coloinailist etc exercise). Zuma will insist on some kind of government of national unity, with Kabila removed, or at least demoted, and with one of the opposition leaders, possibly Kengo installed as a transitional president. This will be followed by another Sun City type process in South Africa which will be invested in by the international community, be good business for RSA, and will do a lot to boost Jospeh Zuma's image as a regional man of peace... he needs an image boost in the west, esp. after all the corruption, and HIV and internal political scandal in the ANC.
The other bit of the story that strengthens this conspiracy theory is the way in which RSA has been courting opposition leaders in this process. Its not really normal that mid campaign cycle, both Tshisekedi and Kengo were in South Africa? They were doing the rounds and garnering support and its been clearly acknowledged that the government of RSA has been financing the UDPS. I wouldn't be surprised if Tshisekedi's jet has been paid for by the RSA government.
This is not my theory entirely, although i have to admit i have been watching the regional engagement in these elections with great interest. Its interesting in that this scenario would be a great case of an African solution. The US, the UK, MONUSCO dont have the credibility to adjudicate this, and i don't think that any of them are credible as they have been so blindly optimistic in their support of the CENI and the Government in the electoral process.
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Friday, 11 November 2011
The International communities' response to DRC's Election violence
With numerous denunciations of the DRC elections violence this week, the international community was swift to condemn the excessive incidents of the past two weeks. The Belgian foreign minister, the MONUSCO’s SRSG, the UN joint office for Human Rights and the Commissioner of the African Union all made statements condemning the violence. The latter, Jean Ping, was in Kinshasa this week where he impressed on all parties the need to accept the outcome of the November elections:
"There will necessarily be only one winner (of the presidential elections)... The rules of the game must apply. Whoever can't become president this time must accept the results,"
He said. Navin Pillai, the UN special High Commissioner for Human Rights added:
“I am sure the Congolese people share my hope for peaceful, free and fair elections and a smooth exercise of their fundamental right to vote..... The kind of intimidation, threats, incitement, arbitrary arrests and violence that we have documented is unacceptable and has a chilling effect on voters,”
She concluded:
“The Government and leaders of political parties must make it clear that there is to be zero tolerance against any such actions which seriously limit the exercise of the right to vote[1].”
This strong denunciation is very important but it’s a paradox. In the same week of such terrible violence, the international community is reaching out to support the Government. Tomorrow, Joseph Zuma will head to Kinshasa to preside over the signing of a multi billion deal between DRC and South Africa for the rehabilitation and construction of a new hydro-electric plant at Inga on the Congo[2]. Kabila has clearly calculated to stage this high profile ceremony to coincide with his electoral campaign. I wonder whether Zuma and Kabila will have a critical discussion about what will happen if he is not re-elected in December 2011?
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